OpenAI-Google battle is less about search. It's more about AGI
- by Mint
- Jul 29, 2024
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Fagella believes that all the moves indicate that the big tech companies, including Google, Meta, and OpenAI, "are ardently moving towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). "Apple's a little quieter about it. I don't know where Tim Cook stands. They're always a little bit more standoffish. But suffice it to say, they're probably in that same running as well, although seemingly not as overt about it," he adds.
OpenAI, for instance, has multimodal GenAI models, including GPT-4o and GPT-4 Turbo, while Google's Gemini 1.5 Flash is available for free in more than 40 languages. Meta recently released Llama 3.1 with 405 billion parameters, which is the largest open model to date, and Mistral Large 2 is a 128 billion-parameter multilingual LLM. Big tech companies are also marching ahead on the path to achieve AGI, which envisages AI systems that are smarter than humans.
OpenAI argues that because “...the upside of AGI is so great, we do not believe it is possible or desirable for society to stop its development forever; instead, society and the developers of AGI have to figure out how to get it right...We don’t expect the future to be an unqualified utopia, but we want to maximize the good and minimize the bad and for AGI to be an amplifier of humanity".
And OpenAI does not mind spending a lot of money to pursue this goal. The ChatGPT maker could lose as much as $5 billion this year, according to an analysis by The Information. However, in a conversation this May with Stanford adjunct lecturer Ravi Belani, Sam Altman said, "Whether we burn $500 million a year, or $5 billion or $50 billion a year, I don’t care. I genuinely don’t (care) as long as we can, I think, stay on a trajectory where eventually we create way more value for society than that, and as long as we can figure out a way to pay the bills like we’re making AGI it’s going to be expensive it’s totally worth it," he added.
In July, Google DeepMind proposed six levels of AGI “based on depth (performance) and breadth (generality) of capabilities". While the '0' level is no AGI, the other five levels of AGI performance are: Emerging, competent, expert, virtuoso and superhuman. Meta, too, says it’s long-term vision is to build AGI that is “open and built responsibly so that it can be widely available for everyone to benefit from". Meanwhile, it plans to grow its AI infrastructure by the end of this year with two 24,000 graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters using its in-house designed Grand Teton open GPU hardware platform.
Elon Musk’s xAI company, too, has unveiled the Memphis Supercluster, underscoring the partnership between xAI, X and Nvidia, while firming up his plans to build a massive supercomputer and "create the world's most powerful AI". Musk aims to have this supercomputer—which will integrate 100,000 'Hopper' H100 Nvidia graphics processing units (and not Nvidia's H200 chips or its upcoming Blackwell-based B100 and B200 GPUs)—up and running by the fall of 2025.
What can spoil the party
No AI model to date can be said to have powers of reasoning and feelings as humans do. Even Google DeepMind underscores that other than the 'Emerging' level, the other four AGI levels are yet to be achieved. LLMs, too, remain highly advanced next-word prediction machines and still hallucinate a lot, prompting sceptics like Gary Marcus, professor emeritus of psychology and neural science at New York University, to predict that the GenAI "...bubble will begin to burst within the next 12 months", leading to an "AI winter of sorts".
"My strong intuition, having studied neural networks for over 30 years (they were part of his dissertation) and LLMs since 2019, is that LLMs are simply never going to work reliably, at least not in the general form that so many people last year seemed to be hoping. Perhaps the deepest problem is that LLMs literally can’t sanity-check their own work," says Marcus.
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