Brian Wang Elon Musk and SpaceX plan to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years. Major delays mean crewed missions will be postponed another two years to the next launch window. It is only possible to travel from Earth to Mars every two years, when the planets are aligned [in the near term]. SpaceX will have to have fuel transfer capabilities. A Starship that reaches low earth orbit might only have 10-20% of its fuel remaining. Tanker Starships with all unneeded weight removed could keep about 10% extra fuel to transfer while keeping enough fuel to land again. Peter Hague had some additional analysis. SpaceX must be able to: Recover the Superheavy booster and refly it, or be too constrained by engine production to achieve their goals. Get Starship to orbit — Peter Hague (@peterrhague) September 23, 2024 Eventually, there will be thousands of Starships going to Mars. The fundamental existential question is whether humanity becomes sustainably multiplanetary before something happens on Earth to prevent that, for example nuclear war, a supervirus or population collapse that weakens civilization to the point where it loses the ability to send supply ships to Mars. One of Elon Musk’s biggest concerns right now is that the Starship program is being smothered by a mountain of government bureaucracy that grows every year. This stifling red tape is affecting all large projects in America, which is why, for example, California has spent ~$7 billion dollars and several years on high-speed rail, but only has a 1600 ft section of concrete to show for it. This is a fork, maybe the fork, in the road of human destiny. SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years. If we encounter challenges, then the crewed missions will be postponed another two years. It is only possible to travel from… https://t.co/dzi03Hnyhg