29 Sep 2024, 17:01 UTC • By: Photo: Tesla, @niccruzpatane via X Everyone, especially Tesla fans, expects Tesla to blow people's minds on October 10 during the "We, Robots" event set for the Robotaxi unveiling. With so much hype surrounding the event, there is a high chance that reality will not meet expectations, and the event will prove rather disappointing. If you're a Tesla fan or investor, you already know what was causing Tesla shares to trend higher in the past two weeks. It happened before every Tesla event, only to fall to the ground afterward. I don't expect it to be any different with the Robotaxi unveiling event on October 10. However, this one is a make-or-break for Tesla, which bet the entire house on autonomous driving. Failing to deliver on 10/10 will put Tesla shares under a lot of stress. The biggest problem is that Tesla had it coming, so to speak, by hyping the event throughout the year. Tesla shifted its core strategy around the Robotaxi unveiling, dropping plans to launch new models like the $25,000 compact EV . Elon Musk took this decision, together with equally controversial others, as he was "mind-blown" by the Tesla Full Self-Driving progress with the V12 builds. When Reuters reported that Tesla abandoned plans for the next-gen vehicles, Elon Musk intervened to dismiss the report not by saying why that was not true but by offering a cookie instead: "Here's a robotaxi." Photo: CBS Sunday Morning via YouTube The announcement must have been as much of a surprise to Elon Musk as it was to Tesla engineers and the world outside Tesla. That was made clear after the date set for the robotaxi unveiling, August 8 (or 8/8), was changed to October 10 (10/10). Musk explained that more work was needed to prepare several robotaxi prototypes for the event. While this was obvious to everyone except Musk, the Tesla CEO only grappled with this reality after investors started asking questions during the first-quarter earnings call. Expectations for Tesla's robotaxi are at an all-time high It was unclear what two months (and two days) could do for the preparations, but most probably, they haven't changed much. However, everyone has been seduced by Elon Musk's confidence in believing that something huge would happen on October 10. And it's got to, considering that this is Tesla's first new product reveal since the Optimus robot was introduced two years ago. However, just because it has to doesn't mean it will become the big event people expect. This is always bound to happen with events that have been blown out of proportion. People expect the Robotaxi to be Tesla's greatest product since the Model 3 promised (and succeeded) to become the best-selling electric vehicle on Earth. However, both logic and history taught us that expectations this high are more likely to end in disappointment. Photo: Tesla In a recent tweet about the Robotaxi event, Musk raised the expectations bar higher with the "This will be one for the history books" message. One way or another, he is right. Tesla bet so much on Robotaxi's success that failing to deliver on the October 10 event will set the house on fire. Sadly, all indications point to a fizzled-out launch, so I'm not holding my breath for a historic breakthrough. Signs that Tesla's Robotaxi launch event might fizzle The first indication that the October 10 launch will not be as impressive as some expect was how Tesla announced its robotaxi unveiling. Not because it was ripe for unveiling but because Musk wanted to make a point, namely that the Reuters report was inaccurate. Unsurprisingly, he managed to convey the exact opposite message. Instead of offering details about the next-gen EV development, he went on to announce a completely different product. The robotaxi may have been designed to share the vehicle platform with the upcoming Tesla compact EV, but it certainly isn't the product most people are waiting for. It could make or break Tesla, and some investors are watching every move in this area very closely, but most Tesla customers are more interested in the affordable EVs that Tesla promised last year. Even as Tesla dodged the robotaxi questions, it became clear that the ground-breaking unboxed vehicle architecture was no longer a priority. Tesla later said it would only use the new manufacturing process for the robotaxi, not the affordable EV model. For better or worse, the compact EV will inherit Tesla Model Y underpinnings, with some elements of the unboxed vehicle. This would allow Tesla to use existing production facilities, although the cost-saving potential would be much lower. Photo: u/boopitysmopp via Reddit The second sign that Tesla might not reveal anything of substance is the venue chosen for the event: Warner Bros. studios in Burbank, California. While the studio premises might be the perfect background for the Robotaxi test drives, it might also suggest that Tesla would resort to "smoke and mirrors" to seduce the audience. Tesla ultimately needs the Robotaxi to be a successful product. Its revenues have plateaued, and vehicle deliveries also look like they peaked a while ago. The past three years show that Tesla shares have been mostly stagnating between $200 and $300. A growth stock without growth is the worst investors can get. However, even if the robotaxi proves successful, Tesla will still have to demonstrate that it could turn the new product into a steady revenue stream. Tesla Full Self-Driving software may have become better, but not that good for driving unsupervised on public roads. The reality is that Tesla hasn't even applied for a driverless car permit to test its robotaxis. I'm not saying that Tesla cannot be successful with its robotaxi venture. I'm just asking questions, as Musk loves writing in his craziest posts on X. You should be asking them, too. If you liked the article, please follow us: