Major airlines are cutting services to China or quitting entirely amid low travel demand, high costs CEO Elon Musk said on the call that his "best guess" is that "vehicle growth" will reach 20% to 30% next year, citing "lower cost vehicles" and the "advent of autonomy." Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting delivery growth of about 15% for 2025. Even bullish Deutsche Bank analysts doubted Musk's forecast and wrote, in a note following the earnings report, "Our view remains more reserved at 10-15% (~2.03m)," and assumes Tesla can roll out a cheaper version of its Model Y at a price under $30,000 after subsidies, and other variants of the small SUV. Analysts at Morgan Stanley who also recommend buying the stock, called Musk's 2025 vehicle delivery growth prediction a "maybe." They set their estimate at 14%. It "clearly depends on the company's ability to improve affordability through cheaper model (next gen) introduction, financing offers and improved features," the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note Thursday. A grain of salt Musk said on the Wednesday call that Tesla plans to start production of its recently unveiled Cybercab, a robotaxi with butterfly doors and no steering wheel or pedals, by the end of 2026. He also said Tesla would conduct driverless ridehailing in California and Texas next year in its existing cars, which are not currently safe to use without a human driver ready to steer or brake at any time. Bernstein analysts, who have a bearish price target of $120 on shares of Tesla, wrote in a note out Thursday: "The tone of Tesla's conference call was ebullient and filled with Musk prognostications that have historically polarized bull and bear investors, and was more akin to a pep rally, with the company only taking two questions from sell-siders." Musk has for years promised shareholders a software upgrade that can turn Teslas into robotaxis. That hasn't happened yet. Musk has also promised a refreshed version of the Tesla Roadster since 2017. The design of the vehicle is not yet complete. The Bernstein analysts wrote, "We continue to struggle to see Tesla overcoming the technological and regulatory hurdles needed to leapfrog current level 4 robotaxis, and believe fully unsupervised FSD could be years away." They pointed to Musk's "long history of being overly optimistic about FSD" and said crowdsourced research that shows "Tesla continues to lag well behind competitors" on robotaxis. The share rally Thursday was the sharpest since a 24% gain in May 2013. The jump erased Tesla's loss for the year and left the stock up 3% in 2024, though it still trails the 22% gain for the Nasdaq.