130 Comments Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars. Here’s how it plans to do it. For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030. That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year. Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while. Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025. If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024. It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025. How does Tesla deliver this extra ~500,000 EVs Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate. It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen. After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025. Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year. It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal. The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025. Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.” He h