Brian Wang Tesla AI has updated its FSD (full self driving) achievements. There will be huge progress towards nearing human level driving. Tesla expects to surpass human level driving in mid-2025 (6-9 months). Solving robotaxi and full self driving is key to Tesla’s future. Version 13.X should get them from 12% FSD adoption (% of people who buy a Tesla who get FSD) in the US to 25% adoption worldwide (China, Europe etc…) it will be smooth and comfortable. Everyone else is at 12.1 or v 11 or worse. Everyone other company self driving system is 600X worse than Version 13. Going from V 12.1 to version 13 needed 2 billion miles of training data. Waymo and Apollo go and Xpeng have started to follow. They are at best at 12.1 level and most experts have said the Chinese self driving systems are at Tesla FSD version 11 level. Tesla used 500,000 cars driving an average 4000 miles using FSD in 2024 to improve the AI. Tesla FSD barely works for version 3 hardware. It really needs hardware 4. Every other car maker needs version 4 hardware or better installed on many cars to replicate and they need an AI training cluster. If a company had 5000 cars training would need 400,000 miles driven. This would take 4 years of cars permanently on the road with human taxi driver. 100,000 cars driving 20,000 miles or 50,000 cars driving 40,000 miles. This means that Tesla is a minimum of 4-6 years ahead of any possible competitor to get to where Tesla will be in November. Tesla will improve 1000 times in miles driven per intervention in 2025. Tesla FSD should go global in Q1 2025 with a high adoption rate. Tesla could reach 5 million cars with real life usage of FSD by mid 2025. This would be for highway and city driving (aka all driving). This means about 1000 miles per month per car. This would mean 5 billion miles per month of training data. This is going from 1 billion miles per month by December 2024 to about 2-3 billion miles per month in April 2025 and then 5 billion miles per month in July 2025. This could be 40 billion FSD driving miles in 2025. A 5-6X improvement in interventions would be greater than a 3X leap from a new teenage human driver and an experienced human driver. Tesla has integrated several of these improvements and are already seeing a 4x increase in miles between necessary interventions compared to v12.5.4. This is likely a 12.5.6 or version 13.0 is already showing a 4X increase in miles per intervention. 50,000 FSD customers have end to end highway for FSD. This is FSD that replaces the Autopilot that was already ten times safer than human driving. FSD version 13 is releasing to Tesla employees and a FSD Version 13.3 will go wide to AI4( Hardware 4 users around the end of November. Tesla FSD Version 13 appars be a day later than the end of October (today) with a November 1st or 2nd release. There is actually smart summon that will to to European and Asian customers. This means driverless operation within line of sight to a parked Tesla. As October comes to a close, here's an update on the releases What we completed: