Image: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reportedly spoke on the phone about the Ukraine war on Thursday Why you can trust Sky News Military analyst Sean Bell says this... Early in the war, Russia forward-deployed troops in Belarus and conducted limited operations from the territory. Although an attack from the north would cause some challenges for Ukraine - defensive forces would have to be sp widely - it is increasingly unlikely that any such attack from Belarus territory will occur, for two primary reasons. Firstly, Belarus's president Alexander Lukashenko is described as Europe's last dictator. He has been in power since 1994 and, despite huge nationwide protests, has maintained a tight grip into his sixth and current term in office - aided by Putin supplying heavily discounted energy to Belarus. However, Lukashenko knows his tenure as president could become very vulnerable if he was to direct reluctant Belarusian soldiers to join Russia in the war in Ukraine, which many believe is "none of their business". Instead, to appease Putin, Belarus's leader agreed to host forward-deployed Russian tactical nuclear missiles on Belarusian soil - but it appears very unlikely that Belarusians would tolerate getting drawn into the war directly. Secondly, Russia does not have unlimited supplies of military capability and must focus on its main effort. Although the initial objective of the Russian invasion was to defeat Ukraine, the primary (revised) objectives of Putin's special military operation appear to be securing Crimea, the Donbas, and the land bridge between them, in the east. Therefore, the focus of Russia's military campaign this summer has been to secure the remaining area of the Donbas not under Russian control - the area around Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. Most military experts expect this area to be the focus of Russia's military effort for the remainder of 2024. This content is provided by , which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options. Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow cookies for this session only.