Nov 11, 2024 • 09:47 ET • 4 min read Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds. My analysis The Ball State Cardinals are coming off a 27-21 loss to Miami (OH), their second loss in the last three weeks. Miami (OH) is a Bottom-3 scoring team in the conference, but bleeding points has been a consistent theme for Ball State. The Cardinals are 11th in scoring defense in the MAC, allowing 38.9 points per contest. Their defense is a turnstile at best, surrendering 461.3 yards per game, 130th in college football, and they’re dead last in yards per play (7.2). It’s something they’ll need to improve if they are to run the regular-season table and clinch a bowl bid. The opposition has had its way with them, running for nearly 170 yards per game while throwing for 291.9 per contest, another Bottom-5 mark in the nation. This Buffalo Bills offense should be able to take advantage of that porous defense, particularly in the run game, where it ranks Top 5 in the MAC at 153.4 yards per contest. They may even see some returns on what's been a weak passing attack producing just 174.2 yards per game (121st). The Bulls are on the upswing, though, after dumping Akron 41-30 to bring them within a win of postseason football. The ground game churned out 180 yards and three touchdowns on a decent 4.1 yards per carry, while quarterback C.J. Ogbonna threw for 210 yards and a pair of scores. How Buffalo’s defense holds up against Ball State will likely determine the winner. The Bulls are still getting gashed for 408.7 yards per game, and teams are throwing for 255.4 yards against — both outside the Top 100. Ball State is also an impressive 6-3 against the spread this season, which should raise some flags in predicting a runaway Buffalo cover. Instead, with two of the bottom-ranked MAC defenses, the total seems more inviting. The Cardinals sit at 7-1-1 O/U this year, while Buffalo has cashed the Over in five straight games.