The hottest year ever: Trump's second term and what to expect for the climate
- by MLive
- Nov 14, 2024
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Flames from a flare stack at an oil refinery in Louisiana, U.S. Photographer: Bryan Tarnowski/Bloomberg
Getty Images/Bloomberg Creative
On Tuesday, Trump picked former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York to lead the EPA, who immediately announced on social media platform X that he would make the U.S. the global leader of AI.
The energy required to power AI is substantial. For example, generating one AI image uses as much energy as charging an iPhone. By 2026, global AI use will require the same energy needs as Japan, according to the International Energy Agency.
A Goldman Sachs research paper noted that the demand for power at AI data centers could climb by 160% by 2030, releasing more atmospheric emissions. One way to curb the vast energy output is to ensure that fossil fuel power plants transition to renewable energy sources to generate energy. Full adoption is slated for 2035, but that timeline may be unlikely. However, scrapping EPA rules could delay that goal.
“We can meet demand for data centers without scrapping EPA rules to clean up dirty power plants and cut climate pollution,” Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), said in a statement responding to Zeldin’s appointment. “We count on the EPA to protect clean air and water and public health and that’s what we’ll hold the next administrator accountable to do.”
However, tech companies are among the biggest consumers of renewable energy. Google and Microsoft, which have grown their carbon footprints because of AI, have signed agreements to revive some defunct nuclear power plants that are dramatically less harmful to the environment than power plants.
The Inflation Reduction Act
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the farm loan relief program funded from $3.1 billion set aside in the Inflation Reduction Act allocated toward assisting distressed borrowers of direct or guaranteed loans administered by USDA. The law was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in August. (Anntaninna Biondo, MLive.com)
Unfortunately for Trump, the IRA is popular among some House Republicans, who have seen the economic benefits in their districts and warned GOP Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana to be cautious in any efforts to repeal or reform the law.
About 60 percent of all IRA-related clean economy projects and 85 percent of total private-sector investments have gone to GOP congressional districts, according to an analysis by nonpartisan business organization E2. And that’s even though no Republican member of Congress voted in favor of the IRA. Of the top 20 congressional districts for clean energy investments, 19 are held by Republicans.
“Donald Trump’s going to learn something that our opponents in our initiative battle learned: Once people have a benefit, you can’t take it away,” Washington Governor Jay Inslee said in a press call Friday. “He is going to lose in his efforts to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act because governors, mayors of both parties, are going to say, ‘This belongs to me, and you’re not going to get your grubby hands on it.’”
Oil and gas policy
FILE - This June 12, 2017 file photo shows pumpjacks operating in the western edge of California's Central Valley northwest of Bakersfield. Oil production from federally-managed lands and waters topped a record 1 billion barrels in 2019, according to the Department of Interior on Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020. (AP Photo/Brian Melley, File)
AP
While Trump wants to loosen federal regulations and make an oil and gas boom more appealing, the realities of the market may temper his ambitions.
“If you’re anticipating a big oil and gas drilling boom to happen during the coming second term for President-elect Donald Trump, you would do well to temper that expectation,” David Blackmon, a Texas-based public policy analyst, wrote in Forbes. “While federal energy policy actions in a 2nd Trump term will certainly be more pro-oil and gas business than they’ve been during the Biden/Harris years, company management teams will remain bound by market realities that strongly advocate against mounting a new U.S.-focused drilling boom.”
However, the American Petroleum Institute (API), the largest oil and gas trade group, wants Trump to scrap a range of federal rules, including vehicle emission standards designed to promote electric vehicle production, reinstate export permits for liquefied natural gas facilities, and repeal methane emission fees related to drilling operations. The group also wants more auctions for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and allow development on federal lands, including National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Biden’s Bureau of Land Management moved to restrict that possibility on Wednesday.
There are also calls to shrink the land around national monuments, weaken the Endangered Species Act, and open Alaska’s largest forest to logging.
Food and Farmers
The Italian Festival at The Mount is a four-day event over Columbus Day weekend. (Staten Island Advance/Pamela Silvestri)
Silvestri
Trump’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could cause the entire agricultural industry to collapse, according to Mary Jo Dudley, the director of the New York-based Cornell Farmworker Program.
“There are no available skilled workers to replace the current workforce should this policy be put into place,” she told the Missouri Independent Tuesday.
Stephen Miller, who will be Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, said in 2023 that mass deportation would force the agricultural industry to offer higher wages with better benefits to fill the vacant jobs. However, studies show the policy would cost Americans 88,000 jobs for every one million undocumented immigrants seized and deported, primarily because the policy would prompt U.S. business owners to cut back or start fewer new businesses, shifting investments to less labor-intensive technologies and industries. The study noted those who were harmed would be the least educated and most economically vulnerable workers.
At the climate level, the Biden administration spent $19 billion to help implement agricultural practices to reduce agricultural emissions, among the highest outside transportation and energy. Industry insiders worry that those transition investments will stop under Trump. There are also fears that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs–a plan to tax imports–could result in retaliatory tariffs that could hurt farmers across the Midwest, who exported $27 billion worth of agricultural products in 2023. Trump’s China tariffs in his first term cost farmers billions, prompting the Trump administration to hand out aid totaling $28 billion—more than the budget of U.S. nuclear forces.
Despite this, voters nearly 80% of U.S. farming-dependent counties voted for Trump.
Home Insurance costs
A house is under construction on a lagoon in the West Point Island section of Lavallette, N.J. on Wednesday, August 14, 2024. NJ.com, generic, bay, water, barrier island, rising, sea level, construction, shore, bay, flood, flooding, insurance, new home, waterfront, beach house, houses, ocean, sea, summer.
Jim Lowney | For NJ Advance Media
In addition to the potential loss of federal grants aimed at reinforcing homes against extreme weather, overseas retaliation against Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of building materials sourced from overseas. In addition, labor costs may increase if Trump’s deportation plan is put in motion, draining building crews and driving up costs.
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