Report this post I was at a meeting the other day and I heard, again, that the Tesla Semi factory was targeting a production capacity of 50,000 units. We all know that Tesla is flexible with when they actually deliver vehicles vs original announced timelines, but once their factories are getting built things get a little more predictable. Factories cost a lot to build and running them at low capacity kills ROI. The Semi factory is well into construction, so we should be taking those numbers and dates seriously. That prompted me to ask myself what does a factory capable of making 50,000 units per year mean about Tesla's go-to-market strategy and therefore pricing? ACT mandates for class 7-8 tractors in 20% of sales in 2028 and 40% of sales in 2032 and after. According to Calstart, states that have adopted ACT or signed the MOU to adopt ACT represent about 34% of the market. According to Transportation Topics sales of class 8 trucks were nearly 250,000. So based on today's sales numbers, 2032 and after compliance sales are a maximum of about 41k units. 20% Less than the planned output of the Tesla factory. For me that suggested that the Semi isn't just a compliance play and it isn't just going after market share in ACT states. It's a vehicle meant to compete with the Cascadia, not just the e-Cascadia. That means it has to compete with diesel on cost, with minimal subsidization. Bottoms up analyses based on component cost have always suggested this was possible, but it hasn't ever been the case. Can Tesla achieve those costs from day 1? The answer depends on how much you believe their expertise and scale in passenger vehicles translates to trucks. I believe there is a lot of transferability. Diesel trucks and gasoline cars are fundamentally different technologies. Electric trucks and electric cars have much more in common. Tesla has been testing this vehicle for years, they know what it can do and how much it will cost them. Their production numbers suggest they also believe they will be competitive. I, for one, take that seriously. That all implies electric trucks could show up not just in California, but in Texas and other states with cheap electricity way sooner than anyone thought. That will challenge fleets in a number of ways including access to power, electricity cost management and access to capital for asset deployment. truCurrent can help fleets with roadmaps, and ultimately electrical systems, to understand and navigate those challenges. 83