January 26, 2025 9:18 PM | 2 min read TSLA faces diverging forecasts for its 2025 delivery growth, with Wall Street’s expectations clashing with independent analysts’ predictions amid uncertainty over new vehicle launches and potential policy changes. What Happened: The Future Fund LLC‘s Managing Partner Gary Black highlighted on Sunday that while Wall Street projects Tesla’s fiscal 2025 deliveries at 2.07 million units, representing 16% year-over-year growth, respected Tesla forecaster Troy Teslike anticipates a 1% decline. This contrasts with CEO Elon Musk‘s guidance of 20-30% growth provided during the third-quarter earnings call. Black emphasized that Tesla’s 2025 performance hinges on three key factors: the success of the Model Y Juniper refresh, demand for the upcoming $30,000-$35,000 vehicle expected to be unveiled in the first half of 2024, and progress in Full Self-Driving technology. Wall Street may lower its 2025 delivery forecast of 2.07 million units (+16% YoY) and earnings projection of $3.24 per share (+34% YoY), potentially pushing Tesla’s stock down to the $350-$375 range, a decline on approximately 13%, irrespective of management’s statements on autonomy, according to Black. Wall Street is currently forecasting $TSLA FY'25 deliveries of 2,074K +16% YoY vs 2024. On the 3Q earnings call, Elon guided to FY'25 delivery growth of 20-30% YoY. @troyteslike who I believe has the best long-term record forecasting TSLA deliveries is forecasting FY'25 YoY… https://t.co/9RtaDQfmBl pic.twitter.com/YcJClyQ2lA