TSLA researcher Troy Teslike expects the company’s EV deliveries to drop this year despite the Elon Musk-led EV giant promising new and more affordable models on Wednesday. What Happened: Teslike expects deliveries to decline 1% in 2025 to 1.77 million units, below the company-compiled consensus estimate of over 2 million units, the researcher said in a post on social media platform X, formerly Twitter. Hi everyone. Here are the Tesla delivery estimates for the full year: • My Estimate: 1,772,000 units • Analyst Consensus: 2,039,674 units The analyst consensus comes from Tesla's survey of 26 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled consensus. Tesla delivered 1,789,226 cars… pic.twitter.com/t5sKQBw6B0 — Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) January 30, 2025 As per Teslike, the start of Tesla Semi deliveries won’t contribute to the delivery numbers this year and CEO Musk did not reiterate the 20%-30% delivery growth target that he had put forth in October. “We expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025,” the company said in its earnings report instead. Teslike, however, expects sales to drop in both the U.S. and Europe due to top brand sentiment and fewer incentives. The researcher, however, expects deliveries to rise in China, similar to 2024. Tesla said on Wednesday that the company expects to start production of new models, including more affordable ones, in the first half of 2025. Teslike, however, expects the new vehicles to cannibalize sales of existing models. Why It Matters: Tesla stock rose after hours on Wednesday despite the company reporting revenue and earnings below expectations. The company promised new and affordable models this year and said that it would start testing its autonomous ride-hailing service in Texas in June with vehicles deployed with its full self-driving (FSD) driver assistance technology, driving investor sentiment. However, Musk also warned that the company will be retooling factories for the start of production of its new and refreshed Model Y in the first quarter and the change will result in several weeks of lost production. Tesla stock closed up 2.9% at $400.28 on Thursday, according to data from Benzinga Pro. Tesla has a consensus price target of $320.75 based on the ratings of 32 analysts tracked by Benzinga and a consensus “buy” rating. Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link. Read Next: