19 Comments Tesla (TSLA) is about to release its Q2 2025 delivery and production results. Here, we examine what Wall Street expects and what would make sense in reality. Wall Street has struggled to understand Tesla’s decline in deliveries over the past year. The analyst consensus for the first quarter was over 450,000 deliveries in January, but that number dropped to 377,000 deliveries by the end of the quarter. They had to adjust down by 73,000 units, or about $3 billion in sales, over just two months, and they still got it wrong by more than 40,000 units. Advertisement - scroll for more content Something similar is happening this quarter. The Wall Street consensus was for 444,000 deliveries in April, indicating that analysts believed Tesla when it stated that the poor performance in the first quarter was solely due to the Model Y changeover and that it could return to growth or maintain demand, as it had delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles in Q2 2024. However, that consensus waned throughout the quarter as data confirmed that Tesla is not production-constrained, yet still faces significant demand issues. The Wall Street consensus for Tesla’s Q2 deliveries is now at 385,000 vehicles. This represents a 13% decline year-over-year, despite Tesla currently offering record discounts and incentives, including 0% financing on both the Model 3 and Model Y in most markets. However, it is likely that analysts are again overestimating deliveries. Electrek’s Take We have great data in Europe and China, where Tesla is basically down by a few thousand units despite the new Model Y being widely available during the second quarter. The only primary market with limited data for the second quarter is the US. The US is likely where the new Model Y had the biggest positive impact, and Tesla will need to perform well there for deliveries to surpass its Q1 2025 results. The automaker has no chance at annual growth in the second quarter, but based on the best data available, I think it should end between 330,000 and 360,000 units – way below the current analyst consensus. The lower end of the spectrum would result in a massive 25% drop in annual deliveries, while the higher end would result in a still significant 19% drop. There’s no other way to cut it: Tesla’s automotive business is in crisis. The crazy thing is that Wall Street is completely missing this story and only adjusting for the decline throughout the quarter.