
Tesla Robotaxi Expansion and Comparison to Waymo
- by NextBigFuture
- Jul 27, 2025
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Brian Wang
It is reported that Tesla Robotaxi app access users received an update that implies service in and around San Francisco was getting close to going live for the public and a map of the likely service area was posted.
Tesla VP Lars Moravy discussed the Robotaxi expansion to San Francisco during his keynote at the X Takeover 2025 event in San Mateo on July 26, 2025. He confirmed that Tesla plans to roll out Robotaxi operations in the San Francisco Bay Area, marking it as the next expansion after Austin, Texas.
Here is a video where I, Brian Wang, made an analysis of the imminent expansion of Tesla robotaxi and compared the safety data of Tesla and Waymo in Austin.
Tesla has a better safety record in Austin than Waymo does. Tesla has had one safety incident in 7000+ miles over 30 days for 15-35 vehicles and for 50+ expansion testing vehicles. Tesla had 500+ vehicle days (vehicles times days) and 3000 vehicle days of testing. The expansion test vehicles have another 30,000+ miles.
Waymo has had 6 incidents (1 collision, 1 near miss, 4 safety incidents) in July for up to 2300 vehicle days. Waymo had 14 incidents in May and 11 in June for up to 6000 vehicle days. Waymo has an incident for 200-300 vehicle days. Tesla has had one incident for every 500-3500 vehicle days.
Tesla VP Gave Details of Tesla Plans
Tesla VP Lars Moravy gave a 55 minute keynote talk about the Tesla Robotaxi and future Tesla car models.
Join Tesla VP @larsmoravy for an exclusive keynote on cutting-edge vehicle engineering! Insider views on Cybertruck, Robotaxi, & sustainable energy innovations.
Watch live on @teslaownersSV from X Takeover 2025 in San Mateo! @corporatestrea1 https://t.co/Fk7kAF3ZfW — Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) July 26, 2025
Moravy’s career journey from Honda to Tesla (starting in 2010), engineering insights on Tesla’s vehicle lineup (Model S/X refreshes, Model 3 Highland, Model Y Juniper, Cybertruck), challenges in global factory changeovers, updates on upcoming products like the Tesla Semi, Roadster, Cybercab (Robotaxi), and Optimus, as well as broader topics like battery tech, working with Elon Musk and Franz von Holzhausen, in-house manufacturing (“the machine that builds the machine”), and Tesla’s future mission.
Tesla Semi Reno factory updates : built beta units last week for durability testing; production equipment (e.g., powder coat lines, battery/drive unit lines) being installed 24/7.
Tesla starts building production version end of 2024/early 2025; ramp up through second half of 2026. Already delivering pilot fleets beyond Pepsi (e.g., WV, SIA, Tesla’s own fleet).
It is designed for low cost per mile, making it a “no-brainer” for fleets compared to diesel trucks. Expects them to be “everywhere” in 2-3 years.
Semi ramp follows Cybercab launch in Austin; full ramp mode in 2026, but dependent on proving improvements over pilot fleets.
Lars was asked about a future smaller pickup. There was no details.
At about 26 minutes, he said the new Roadster is in active development. Tesla is gearing up for a mind-blowing demo. They rethought the design to be the “last best driver’s car” in an autonomy era and it will include a SpaceX package (e.g., flight capabilities); recent demos excited Elon.
At about 48 minutes, the unboxed process is discussed. They will builds subassemblies separately (like the PC industry) to reduce main line from 150-200 to ~25 stations. This will enable faster assembly with mind-blowing rates. They had the first successful crash tests last week from unboxed process vehicles.
Brian Wang
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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