Brian Wang There is an intensifying race to return humans to the Moon, pitting the US against China and now NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy will have SpaceX race Blue Origin and other bidders. China is aiming for a crewed lunar landing in 2029–2030. There are developing a Long March 10A super heavy lift rocket (70 tons), the Mengzhou crew capsule and Lanyue lander. There are early engine tests underway but no full system integration or unmanned tests yet. China has two human-rated systems: Shenzhou caspule and an earlier Long March working since 1999. China has been launching one crewed mission every months to their Tiangong space station. SpaceX has been developing the Starship Human Landing System (HLS) for Artemis 3. They have iterated 11 Starship prototypes in tests. SpaceX has excelled in rapid human-rating. The Crew Dragon certified in 6 years. It was only one year (2019) from the uncrewed test and first successful crewed flight. It took 10 years for Falcon 9 to get human rated. Blue Origin previously entered a lawsuit against NASA after losing the initial NASA contracts for unmanned lunar landers. Bezos is obsessed with the moon and is clearing pushing politicians and decisions makers to open up the lunar landing contract. New Glenn rocket is the orbital Blue Origin rocket. The first orbital flight was delayed for years but flew January 2025. The second Blue Origin orbital flight planned for Nov. 9, 2025. Blue Origin delayed the NASA’s EscaPADE Mars mission by one year. blue Origin might show a cadence of one launch every ~10–12 months. However, Blue Origin must speed up and launch about 20 times in 2026 to meet commercial launch backlog and their NASA and other commitments. They have to launch dozens of commercial/NASA launches (e.g., Amazon Kuiper satellites, AST SpaceMobile). No second orbital flight yet. Human rating any lunar landing system will require about 5+ uncrewed tests (3 lunar). Brian Wang Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology. Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels. A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements. Categories