Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla? The analyst substantially reduced his delivery forecasts, projecting a 10.5% decrease in volume expectations for 2026 and an 18.5% reduction in cumulative deliveries through 2040. His valuation framework applies a 30x multiple to the consensus 2030 EBITDA estimate, or a 48x multiple based on Morgan Stanley’s own calculations. Interestingly, Percoco assigned a value of $60 per share to Tesla’s Optimus robotics division but tempered the outlook for the core automotive and energy storage businesses. He anticipates a “choppy trading environment” for the stock over the coming twelve months. Mounting Competitive and Strategic Challenges The external landscape adds complexity to the investment thesis. In China, competitors like BYD and other domestic manufacturers are extending their lead through aggressive pricing strategies. Meanwhile, electric vehicle adoption in the United States continues to lag behind initial expectations. In response, Tesla is undertaking a fundamental supply chain transformation. The company aims to eliminate all Chinese components from its US manufacturing by 2027, encouraging suppliers to establish production in Mexico or Southeast Asia. Furthermore, a Nevada-based factory is slated to begin supplying lithium iron phosphate batteries starting in the first quarter of 2026. The Core Investment Dilemma Wall Street remains divided. The average analyst price target, ranging from $383 to $400, hovers close to the stock’s current trading level. The essential question for investors is whether to view Tesla primarily as an automaker navigating a cyclical downturn or as an AI platform company with transformative long-term potential. The financial and operational results over the next several quarters are expected to provide greater clarity on which narrative will prevail. Ad