The current analysis is that Tesla is still making a much cheaper model Y and model 3. Projected pricing for E41 (cheaper Model Y) and D50 (cheaper Model 3) assumes the reported 20% production-cost reduction vs. current refreshed/base models, with Tesla maintaining the same gross-margin percentage. Is dry-electrode 4680 (higher density) achieve these costs, or is Tesla 4680 LFP needed in 2027? The E41/D50 20% cost targets are achievable in 2026 with current technology—no need to wait for any dedicated 4680 LFP in 2027. Tesla has already solved and entered production of fully dry-electrode 4680 cells (both anode and cathode dry-processed) as of Q4 2025/early 2026. Higher-density variants (Gen 2+) are ramping and being used in some Model Y production. This manufacturing efficiency helps overall costs and energy density/range, but the E41/D50 savings come primarily from de-contenting, smaller vehicle size, and existing assembly lines. Current battery costs in China for Tesla. Tesla LFP in China, CATL/BYD prismatic cells are used for base Model 3/Y at Shanghai. At the cell level ~$50–65/kWh and LFP cells are trading at $53–56/kWh wholesale in China and aggressive volume deals push Tesla lower. Pack level including assembly, BMS, cooling, structural integration is $75–90/kWh. This is the cheapest battery chemistry Tesla uses anywhere and the main reason E41/D50 can hit aggressive pricing targets. Tesla batteries in the USA are primarily in-house 4680 at Giga Texas + some Panasonic 2170. At the pack level the cost ~$95–115/kWh. Tesla’s own dry-process 4680 cells are now the lowest-cost per kWh. Batteries remain ~25–35% of total vehicle manufacturing cost. Dry-electrode 4680 (full anode + cathode dry process now in production) and there is a 20–30% density increase that Tesla has developed. 20–35% cheaper packs (dry 4680 + density) + domestic LFP could save $2,000–$5,000 savings per vehicle on a typical 60–80 kWh pack. In late 2027, the Full unboxed manufacturing and continued 4680 scaling pushes Tesla toward sub-$25k vehicle goals. Tesla China Current base prices Model Y: RMB 263,500 (~$37,700 USD at current rates). Model 3: RMB 235,500 (~$33,700 USD). Projected E41 (Model Y variant): RMB 210,800 ($30,100 USD) starting. Projected D50 (Model 3 variant): RMB 188,400 ($26,900 USD) starting. These align closely with Chinese media/analyst speculation of around or below 200,000 RMB for the stripped-down Standard variants. The more aggressive depop (smaller footprint, simplified interior, fewer powered features) + existing lines enables the full 20% cost cut without new tooling. This is expected to be RWD focus initially, LFP batteries, reduced range (~480 km CLTC for D50 per filings), and positioning against BYD/Xiaomi in the 150k–220k RMB segment. Europe and USA