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Potential Stock Split Implications For Tesla Shareholders
So, what would happen if Tesla split its stock this year? Let's touch on the short-term and long-term implications.
Short-Term Considerations
Stock split plans generate buzz, which can drive share prices up in the short-term. Unfortunately, share price gains driven by buzz alone often don't last, especially for volatile stocks like Tesla.
As an example, Tesla announced its 2022 split in March. Shareholders approved the split in August and the transaction was implemented later that month. Between March and August, Tesla's share price rose, fell and recovered—finishing out August with a slight gain.
Should that volatility repeat when Tesla announces its next split, there will be opportunity for the savviest short-term traders.
Looking beyond the immediate term, there is some empirical evidence that split stocks tend to outperform the market for one to three years following the change. This is largely due to investor perception vs. fundamental business improvements, so it can be fleeting.
Tesla did perform well in the three years following the 2020 split but has lagged the market since its 2022 split.
Long-Term Outlook
Longer-term, Tesla should benefit from holding its share price low. But that benefit only applies if the business continues delivering acceptable shareholder returns.
To that end, Tesla is entering an interesting period in its evolution. The company has lowered its prices in recent years to stimulate demand. That's putting pressure on margins and profitability just as Tesla's EV competition is on the rise.
CEO Elon Musk personally creates another layer of challenge for the company. While Musk is credited with masterminding Tesla's growth to date, he has a history of creating negative headlines and distractions. Most recently, reports have surfaced alleging illegal drug use by Musk and Tesla board members.
With those moving pieces in play, a stock split isn't going to make or break Tesla long term. More important will be the company's ability to manage through increased competition, lower margins and the drug-use scandal in 2024.
Is Tesla Stock Likely To Split In 2024?
I don't see Tesla stock splitting this year. The share price is about 30% lower now than it was after the 2022 split. That negates any argument about keeping the share price affordable, since the stock has done that on its own.
If TSLA were expected to rise some 75% to the mid-$300s this year, the story would be different. In that case, you'd see Tesla on lists of the best stocks for 2024 and split conversations would be ongoing.
Unfortunately, most analysts aren't predicting that kind of growth. According to Yahoo Finance, the TSLA price targets range from $22.57 to $320.06. The average is $192.73, which represents a slight decrease from the current share price of $199.95.
Tesla's outlook could change for the better if the company’s newly launched Cybertruck makes a big splash. Tesla began delivering the new model in November 2023 with a starting price point of $81,000. The truck is reported to have a towing capacity of 11,000 pounds and a range of 340 miles per charge.
Tesla also has growing opportunity in its energy generation and storage business, which quadrupled its sales in 2023. That growth doesn't exactly position Tesla among the best energy stocks, but it's a nice source of revenue diversification.
Bottom Line
Tesla has split its stock twice in company history. While some believe the EV-maker is due for a third split in 2024, that probably won't happen unless the share price rises significantly from where it is now.
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