SpaceX Stock & Starlink vs Tesla—A Tale of Two Musks...
- by Forbes
- Jan 07, 2025
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Comparing Tesla and SpaceX
In contrast to the volatile, rollercoaster ride of publicly traded Tesla stock, SpaceX’s valuation has been appreciating in a step function, as shown in the exhibit below. The liquidity options differ significantly between private and public equities, yet the sharp contrast in movement demonstrates the inherent risks of both equity positions.
SpaceX Stock Valuation (private company) Moves in a Periodic Step Function
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While both Tesla and SpaceX have appreciated strongly since inception, the assumption that they will continue to grow at the same historical rate is unrealistic. Few, if any, historical precedents show an $800 billion appreciation in less than six weeks, as seen with Tesla. Furthermore, recent evidence of a slowdown in Tesla’s EV shipments suggests a potential reversal or, at minimum, a deceleration in growth. By contrast, no such negative news has emerged from SpaceX, which could indicate divergent long-term prospects for the two companies.
Investment Diversification
As the table shows below, the extreme overweight in Tesla seen with some funds is not mirrored in SpaceX investments. The list includes one open-end mutual fund, one closed-end mutual fund, and one ETF that hold SpaceX stock. Investment options with significant redemption restrictions (such as Ark Ventures) were excluded from consideration. While the options are few, noticeable differences exist among the three funds, including SpaceX weightings (ranging from 3.4% to approximately 10%), expense ratios (from 0.75% to 5.33%), and initial investment durations.
Notably, the Baron Partners Fund (BPRTX) appears on both lists, with its 44% weight in Tesla contributing to higher volatility compared to other funds. Only an investor’s risk tolerance, preferences, and guidance from experienced advisors will determine the appropriateness of these investments.
ETF and Closed/Open End Mutual Funds with SpaceX Stock Exposure
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