TSLA investor Gary Black cautioned against setting unrealistic expectations for the company’s Optimus robot program on Thursday, sparking debate about the electric vehicle maker’s valuation metrics and growth prospects. What Happened: Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC, calculated that Tesla’s planned production of 500,000 Optimus robots by 2027 would add approximately $0.70 to earnings per share, assuming a $30,000 average selling price and 20% gross margin. This would supplement his projected core EPS of $7.70 for that year. The analysis drew pushback from Dave Lee, host of Dave Lee on Investing, who argued that successful Optimus deployment would dramatically increase Tesla’s price-to-earnings multiple due to growth potential rather than just incremental earnings. Black defended his conservative stance, pointing to Tesla’s recent market performance. “TSLA has underperformed for the past three years because expectations were too high,” Black wrote on X, noting that Tesla shares gained 12% compared to the Nasdaq 100’s 36% rise during that period. “Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get pounded on by TSLA uberbulls for being too cautious, when in reality even my forecasts have been too bullish over the past three years,” Black wrote. One can clearly see this in TSLA FY'25 and FY'26 earnings estimates, which have come down -39% and -45% over the past 12 months, as the market figured out TSLA's long-term projection of 50% compounded volume growth was too high. Every time I try to right-size expectations, I get… pic.twitter.com/YkURbaUHnS